Buy-Side Due Diligence
Solar PPA Red Flags: What the Developer Won't Put in the Deck
A developer can't warn you about the clauses that protect them. We can — because we're paid by you, never the developer.
Buy-Side Due Diligence
A developer can't warn you about the clauses that protect them. We can — because we're paid by you, never the developer.
The dangerous risks in a solar PPA aren't in the headline tariff — they're in the clauses that only bite after you sign. Here are the red flags we pressure-test on every buy-side mandate, each one drawn from a real deal.
One state moved settlement from slot-wise to a 15-minute level after a PPA was signed — cutting offtake 20% and dropping a CFO's savings from ₹24 Cr to ₹19.2 Cr. Your model must stress-test banking rules, not assume they're fixed.
Maharashtra's MERC FY25-26 order cut contractable capacity ~50% and savings ~10% — and it hit existing PPAs, not just new ones. A fair PPA needs a clear transition window.
A 3% annual escalator turns a ₹4.00 tariff into ₹6.88 by year 20 — a 72% rise. Always model the escalation to the end of the term.
Deemed-generation clauses, the SSSHA risk, cross-subsidy surcharge and FPPCA exposure can each quietly erode the saving the deck promised. These are the clauses a developer has no incentive to flag.
Benchmark the tariff (so you know the number is fair) and pressure-test the clauses (so the saving survives). Start with the PPA Index, see whether your tariff is fair, or get an independent buy-side review. Real examples: the ₹32 Crore PPA trap and is a 25-year PPA an asset or a trap.
What are the biggest solar PPA red flags? Uncapped escalation, post-signing banking-rule changes, retrospective tariff orders, and deemed-generation / SSSHA / cross-subsidy clauses.
Can a signed PPA's savings still drop? Yes — regulatory changes to banking or tariffs can reduce offtake and savings even after signing, which is why clause-level due diligence matters before you commit.
Benchmark the tariff and check the clauses before you sign a 25-year contract.
Check the PPA Index →